FBS · Mid-American ConferenceConference game
Miami OH favored on the road despite ranking below Central Michigan
Miami OH#10350%
Central Michigan#9350%Wk 8 (Oct 18), 2026-27: Miami OH 50%, Central Michigan 50% at Central Michigan.
Miami OH's win probability against Central Michigan has swung between 46% and 70% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 50% now.
Miami OH's win probability against Central Michigan has swung between 53% and 75% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 56% now.
Miami OH's win probability against Central Michigan has swung between 59% and 79% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 62% now.
Versus lists Miami OH as the projected winner here even though the RedHawks sit at No. 103 in FBS, ten spots behind Central Michigan's No. 93. The gap comes down to scheduling, Miami OH's strength of schedule rank of 120 is far softer than Central Michigan's 62, and Versus still gives the RedHawks the slight edge, 24-23, with the win probability split dead even at 50-50.
Miami OH brings volatility into this one, having swung from a 38-point win to a 45-point loss already this season, and its offense, graded C-, has shown it scores considerably better at home than it does on the road. Central Michigan's own home boost is even larger, with the Chippewas scoring 15 more points per game at home than away, which matters with this game on their home field.
Both teams carry similar overall grades, Miami OH and Central Michigan each a C- on the season, but Central Michigan's offense grades out at D against Miami OH's C-, while the defenses are nearly identical at D+ apiece. All four of Central Michigan's losses this season have come against teams with winning records, a trend that will be tested again against a Miami OH team still fighting to climb back to .500. The result counts in the Mid-American standings for both sides.
Graded within FBS, 138 teams
