Idaho's 2-5 mark masks an A- grade as Vandals favored over Southern Utah

Idaho's record reads 2-5, worse than Southern Utah's 3-4, but Versus sees the gap the other way. The Vandals carry an A- overall grade built on an A offense ranked 13th in FCS, and they have played the toughest schedule in the division at a strength of schedule rank of 1. That context matters more than the win column heading into this Big Sky Conference game that counts in the standings.

Southern Utah brings a respectable B+ offense of its own, but the Thunderbirds have slid from No. 24 to No. 46 in the Versus FCS rankings this season and are just 1-3 in one-score games, a sign their close-game form has not held up. Both defenses rank in the bottom half of FCS, Idaho at 47th and Southern Utah at 50th, which points toward a game decided by whose offense finishes drives.

Idaho has won the last three meetings in this series and has not lost to Southern Utah since October 2018. Versus projects that trend continuing, with Idaho favored 36-28 and given a 68 percent win probability, while Southern Utah sits at 32 percent.