Projection gives Utah a four-point edge over surging Houston

Versus projects a 31-27 final, with Utah favored by four points and given a 59 percent win probability to Houston's 41. That is about as tight as a top-11 meeting gets, and it fits two teams that have been climbing or holding steady all season in the FBS ranks.

Utah carries the best record in the country at 6-0 and has won 12 straight games, a run that stretches back through last season. The Utes sit 10th in FBS with an A overall grade, backed by A grades on both sides of the ball and a 14th-ranked defense. Their one soft spot is a strength of schedule rank of 44, well behind their overall standing.

Houston has been the more dramatic riser, jumping 13 spots in the Versus rankings this season to reach 11th in FBS, its best position in years. The Cougars match Utah with an A offense and an 11th-ranked offensive unit, and they are one of only 20 FBS teams ranked in the top 25 on both offense and defense. Their own strength of schedule rank of 24 trails Utah's overall profile slightly.

This one counts in the Big 12 standings, pitting two unbeaten-or-nearly-unbeaten contenders against each other with little separating them beyond Utah's home projection and deeper strength of schedule mark.