Clemson's stronger schedule tips a tight ACC test against Virginia Tech

The clearest gap between these two ACC teams isn't in the win column, it's in who they've played. Clemson carries a strength of schedule rank of 41 while Virginia Tech sits at 123, a gap that looms over a game where the records are nearly identical. Versus projects Clemson to win 29-23, with a 64 percent chance to take it at home.

Clemson's case rests on its defense, graded B+ and ranked 41st, and on the fact that both of its losses this season have come against teams with winning records, a sign the Tigers have mostly been tested by real competition. The Tigers are graded A- overall and carry a power grade of B, both ahead of where Virginia Tech sits in those same categories.

Virginia Tech arrives having won 5 of its last 7 games and brings a B- offense that ranks 56th, but the Hokies have scored far more at home than on the road this season, a split that works against them with this game in Clemson's building. Their defense, graded C+, will need to hold up against a Clemson attack that ranks 69th in offense but has shown it can take advantage of thinner competition on its schedule.

With the ranks close and the schedules so different, this game looks like a real test of whether Virginia Tech's record was built against enough quality to carry over.