Tulane edges higher-ranked Texas-San Antonio in Versus's projection

Versus likes Tulane to win this one even though Texas-San Antonio sits 45 spots higher in the FBS ranks at No. 31 to Tulane's No. 76. The gap closes when the lines turn to defense, where Tulane grades out at a B and ranks 53rd against a UTSA defense that checks in at 81st with a C grade. That edge, plus a home mark of 10 straight wins, is enough to tip a tight projection, 26-24, toward the Green Wave.

UTSA arrives at 6-1 and graded A- overall, with an offense that ranks 65th and has carried a team that has gone a perfect 4-0 in one-score games this season. That kind of record in close contests can mask a defense that has been the Roadrunners' weak point, and it is the area Tulane is built to attack.

This is a conference game and it counts in the AAC standings for both sides. Tulane has not lost by more than 14 points all season, a sign that even its three losses have kept the Green Wave within range, and Versus's 55 percent win probability reflects a home team that matches up well enough defensively to offset the larger gap in overall ranking.