Western Michigan's defense built to exploit Central Michigan's offensive floor

The widest gap in this Mid-American Conference matchup sits on defense, where Western Michigan ranks 65th in FBS and Central Michigan sits 44 spots back at 109th. That alone explains why Versus projects the Broncos to control this one, 27-19, with a 70 percent win probability.

Western Michigan carries the highest Versus rating in the conference and enters at 4-2, graded a B overall against Central Michigan's C+. The Broncos' defense grades out at B-, well clear of Central Michigan's D+, and that unit should have the final say against a Chippewas offense that ranks 117th nationally. Still, Western Michigan's own scoring profile is a complication on the road, since the Broncos have scored noticeably better at home than away this season, something worth watching with this game at Central Michigan.

Central Michigan has its own case for optimism. The Chippewas have improved their power rating in each of the last five weeks and average 18 more points per game at home than on the road, a boost they will need against the conference's top-rated team. But all three of Central Michigan's losses this season have come against teams with winning records, and Western Michigan, at 4-2, fits that profile.

This game counts in the Mid-American Conference standings, and with Western Michigan holding a 23-spot divisional rank advantage, 51st to Central Michigan's 74th, the Broncos head in as the clear favorite to keep their league-best standing intact.