West Florida favored by 20 at home over West Alabama

This is a non-conference meeting, with West Alabama representing the Gulf South Conference and West Florida playing out of the United Athletic Conference, and Versus projects a 35-15 final. West Florida is given an 87 percent chance to win as a 20 point favorite, a gap that reflects more than the home game. West Florida, an FCS team, sits 167th nationally, while West Alabama, a Division II team, checks in at 237th, and the projection leans heavily on that national separation even though the two programs are graded within their own divisions.

West Alabama arrives at 5-1 and carries real momentum, having climbed to No. 13 in the Division II rankings this season, its best mark since 2024, and the Tigers have now posted winning records in three straight seasons. Their defense, graded a B- within Division II, has been the stronger half of the roster, while the offense lags at a C.

West Florida is 3-2 but has won nine straight seasons overall and holds top line grades of A- overall, B+ on both sides of the ball within the FCS pool. The Argonauts did hit a rough patch on Oct 3, scoring just 7 points against Abilene Christian, their lowest output since November 2024, a reminder that this offense can go quiet even against lesser competition. Still, the model sees enough separation here to make West Florida the clear choice in this non-conference test.