Richmond's one-point edge over Fordham hides a wide gap in resume

Versus projects the smallest possible margin here, Richmond 26, Fordham 25, with a 52 to 48 win probability split that barely favors the Spiders. That tightness is notable given how far apart these two sit elsewhere in the model, Richmond at No. 20 in FCS against Fordham at No. 98, a 78 spot difference. The explanation is strength of schedule. Richmond's slate ranks 102nd in the division, while Fordham has played the 17th toughest schedule in FCS, which narrows the projected gap even as the overall grades split sharply, an A- for Richmond against a D+ for Fordham.

Richmond arrives at 5-1, its best start through six games since 2016, and has climbed 24 spots in the Versus FCS rankings this season alone. The Spiders carry only a C grade on both sides of the ball, offense and defense alike, so the overall mark reflects the record and schedule more than dominant performances.

Fordham is 1-5 and has been outscored by an average of 20 points over its last five games, going 1-4 in that stretch. The result counts in the Patriot League standings for both sides, and Fordham's tougher schedule is the one thing keeping this projection as close as it is.