Ohio U. edges Central Michigan despite a worse FBS rank

Versus favors Ohio U. to win this one even though its own model ranks the Bobcats 74th in FBS, seven spots behind Central Michigan at 67th. The gap closes once the game moves off a spreadsheet and into a building the Bobcats have controlled, since Ohio U. carries a 15-game home winning streak into Saturday. That history, plus a slightly better offensive rank at 105th compared to Central Michigan's 116th, is enough for Versus to project a 27-24 final and a 57 percent win probability for the home side.

Central Michigan arrives with real momentum of its own. The Chippewas have improved their power rating in each of the last four weeks and both of their losses this season have come against teams with winning records, suggesting the resume is sturdier than the raw power rank of 111th implies. Their defense also grades out C- against Ohio's D+, a real edge in a game expected to stay close.

This is a Mid-American Conference matchup and it counts in the standings. Central Michigan holds the long-term series edge, having won 7 of the last 10 meetings, but Versus sees Saturday as a close one that could go either way, with the home record tipping the margin toward Ohio U.