Western Oregon's offense built to punish TAMU-Kingsville's thin schedule

The sharpest gap between these two Lone Star Conference teams is not on the scoreboard, it is in who they have played. TAMU-Kingsville carries a strength of schedule rank of 114 in Division II, while Western Oregon has faced the 39th-toughest slate in the division, a 75-spot difference that undercuts the Javelinas' 68th-place divisional rank sitting ahead of Western Oregon's 83rd.

Western Oregon's case for closing that gap starts with an A- offense, 32nd in Division II, built around the kind of attack that has already produced an upset of a team 42 spots higher in the rankings this season. Its C+ defense, 84th in the division, is the obvious soft spot, but TAMU-Kingsville's own defense grades out only a touch better at C+ and 86th, after a stretch in which the Javelinas have not allowed more than 22 points in three straight games.

Versus projects Western Oregon to win 35-27, giving the Runnin' Wolves a 69 percent chance at home. The Lone Star Conference game counts in the standings for both teams, and a repeat of last season's 34-27 Western Oregon win would match almost exactly what the model expects this time.