Kansas projected to hold off Middle Tennessee State by 15

Versus projects a 33-18 outcome here, with Kansas given an 82 percent chance to win, a margin that looks decisive on paper but sits alongside two shaky records. Kansas is 1-2 and Middle Tennessee State is 2-2, and neither team arrives with much separation in the overall FBS pecking order, Kansas at No. 110 and Middle Tennessee State just 13 spots back at No. 123.

The rank gap shows up more clearly inside the numbers than the standings. Kansas carries a C grade on both offense and defense with ranks of 81st and 84th, while Middle Tennessee State grades out D across the board with an offensive rank of 123rd and a defensive rank of 120th. Both programs are working with thin schedules so far, Kansas ranked 127th in strength of schedule and Middle Tennessee State 129th, so neither profile has been tested much yet.

This is a non-conference game, with Kansas representing the Big 12 and Middle Tennessee State representing Conference USA, so nothing in either league's standings is at stake. Middle Tennessee State can point to a bit of context in its two losses, both against teams with winning records, while Kansas enters on a different kind of run, its power rating having slipped in each of the last four weeks. That trend is the one thing working against the size of Kansas' projected margin here.