Northern State SD projected to hold off Bemidji State by 4

Versus projects a 28-24 finish here, with Northern State SD given a 60 percent chance to win at home, a margin that suggests this Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference matchup should stay tight into the fourth quarter.

The numbers back that up. Northern State SD carries an A overall grade and has climbed from No. 38 to No. 16 in Division II this season, part of a 4-1 start that is its best through five games in Versus's records. Its power grade of A- and defensive grade of A- both rank among the stronger marks in the division, though its offensive rank of 39 and defensive rank of 30 are more modest than the letter grades suggest.

Bemidji State enters at 2-3 and No. 73 in Division II, 57 spots behind its opponent, but the Beavers still grade out at A- in both power and defense and B+ on offense. No one has beaten them by more than 17 points this season, and all three of their losses have come against teams with winning records, signs that their record undersells their level.

With a strength of schedule rank of 46 for Bemidji State and 51 for Northern State SD, neither team has faced an especially demanding slate so far. The game counts in the Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference standings, and Versus sees Northern State SD's overall grade and home projection as enough to edge a Bemidji State team that has shown it will not go away easily.