South Dakota State's ratings gap with Illinois State runs deeper than the records show

Both teams arrive at 4-1, but that shared record hides how far apart Versus has them rated. South Dakota State sits 6th among all FCS teams with an A+ grade in offense, defense and power, while Illinois State, despite an identical record and an A- overall grade, checks in 21st in FCS with a power rank of 6th and offensive and defensive ranks of 7th and 6th.

The Jackrabbits have made their case with production, not just results, having outscored their last five opponents by a wide margin across that 4-1 stretch. Versus projects them to win this one 31-26, giving South Dakota State a 61 percent chance against Illinois State's 39.

Illinois State has its own case for optimism. The Redbirds climbed as high as No. 2 in the FCS rankings in Week 4, their best showing since 2015, and their A+ grades in offense and defense suggest this projected five-point margin is closer than the divisional rank gap implies.

This is a Missouri Valley Football Conference game, so it carries standings weight for both sides. With South Dakota State's schedule strength ranked 80th and Illinois State's at 106th, neither team has faced a murderers' row to reach this point, which makes Saturday's result the more telling data point for both.