Morgan State's weak schedule undercuts its hot start against Villanova

The starkest gap in this one is strength of schedule, not record. Morgan State comes in 3-1, its best start since 2009, but that mark was built against the 125th-ranked schedule in FCS, the weakest of the two teams by a wide margin. Villanova has faced tougher competition at 69th in FCS even while stumbling to 2-3, a stretch that has dropped the Wildcats 39 spots in the Versus FCS rankings and out of the top 25 entirely.

Villanova still carries the higher overall grade, a B against Morgan State's C+, and both teams grade out evenly on offense at a C. The Wildcats hold a defensive edge, graded C+ to Morgan State's C-, and rank 68th in FCS on that side compared to 88th for the Golden Bears. Versus has Villanova 19 spots ahead of Morgan State in the FCS rankings overall, 48th to 67th.

This is a non-conference game, with Villanova representing the Patriot League and Morgan State the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, so neither side's standings are affected by the result. Villanova has won 14 of its last 17 at home, and Versus projects a 29-24 final with the Wildcats favored at 61 percent to win.