Ohio U. leans on a softer schedule to hold off Kent State

Strength of schedule is what actually separates these two more than their overall ranks suggest. Kent State sits 80th in the FBS in that category, a mark that reflects a tougher slate than the one Ohio U. has played, which ranks 110th. Yet it is Ohio U. that carries the higher overall standing at 95th, four spots clear of Kent State at 99th, a gap Versus projects will hold up on Saturday with a 33-23 result and a 73 percent win probability for the Bobcats.

Ohio U.'s case rests on a C- offense that ranks 93rd, modest but clearly ahead of a Kent State offense graded D- and ranked 130th. The Bobcats also arrive off a 35-7 win over Stonehill, their most lopsided margin in nearly a year, and they have not finished a season below .500 since 2021.

Kent State's own trend line points up even if the results have not fully caught up. The Golden Flashes have improved their power rating in each of the last five weeks and just beat Ball State for the first time in five tries, though they have been outscored on average across their last four games. A defense ranked 132nd in the FBS still gives Ohio U.'s offense room to work.