Harvard edges Colgate in a projected coin-flip finish

This is a non-conference matchup for Ivy League Harvard, a trip outside league play against Patriot League Colgate, and it will not affect either team's conference standings. The widest gap between these two FCS teams is on the schedule sheet: Colgate carries a strength of schedule rank of 66, while Harvard sits at 107, a 41-spot difference that makes Colgate's 4-1 start look more battle-tested than Harvard's unbeaten 2-0 mark.

Both teams lean on defense. Colgate's A defense ranks 17th in FCS behind a B offense at 50th, while Harvard's A- defense at 26th also outpaces its own B offense at 46th. Colgate has climbed 58 spots in the Versus rankings this season, from No. 81 to No. 23, the sharpest rise of either program, while Harvard has kept a winning record for six straight seasons and lost just 6 of its last 33 games.

Versus projects a tight finish, Harvard 23, Colgate 21, giving Harvard a 54 percent chance to win at home. The two-point margin reflects a genuine split decision between a Colgate team playing above its schedule and a Harvard team that has yet to be tested as hard.