Eastern Washington's offense projects to edge UC-Davis in tight Big Sky test

Versus projects this one to come down to a field goal, with Eastern Washington favored 31-28 and given a 58 percent win probability against UC-Davis's 42. That is about as close as these two profiles suggest it should be: UC-Davis carries the far better overall grade at A- and sits 43 spots ahead of Eastern Washington in the FCS divisional rankings at No. 22 to No. 65, but Eastern Washington's power grade of B+ and A- offense, 30th in FCS, give it the edge in the model's simulation.

The story for Eastern Washington is a lopsided one. Its offense ranks 30th in FCS while its defense sits at 50th, and Versus notes all four of its losses this season have come against teams with winning records, including an upset over a Northern Iowa team ranked 39 spots higher than Eastern Washington itself. That kind of schedule shows up in its No. 5 strength of schedule ranking, the best of either team here.

UC-Davis brings more balance and a steadier season, having sat in the Versus FCS top 25 every week so far and peaked at No. 5 in Week 2. The Aggies have also posted winning records in seven straight seasons, a run their 3-2 mark this year keeps alive. Both teams enter this Big Sky Conference game, which counts in the standings, with a long series history behind them, Eastern Washington holding a 10-1 edge in 11 meetings and winning nine of the last ten. Versus's model, though, sees this year's meeting as one of the closer ones on paper.