South Florida's unbeaten record only buys a 2-point edge on Temple

Versus projects South Florida 27, Temple 25, a two-point margin that gives the Bulls a 55 percent chance to win at home. That is a strikingly tight number for a game pitting an unbeaten team against one that has lost three straight, and it says the record gap is not translating into the model's confidence.

South Florida is 4-0 and carries an A- overall grade, but the components underneath are more modest: an offensive rank of 87 and a defensive rank of 74 in FBS, plus a strength of schedule rank of 106 that suggests the start has come against lighter competition. Temple sits at 1-3 and 120th overall, but its grades tell a closer story, a C+ offense and a C defense, and no opponent has beaten the Owls by more than 18 points all season.

This is an American Athletic Conference game and it counts in the league standings for both sides. South Florida is trying to protect its unbeaten record and its 34th overall rank in FBS, while Temple is looking to end a two-game skid on Friday against a team it has otherwise had success against, leading the all-time series 6-4. The projection suggests the final score should stay within the same range the Owls have managed to hold all year.