Marshall projected to hold off Gardner-Webb by 11

Versus has Marshall winning 32-21, a projected margin of 11 points that gives the Thundering Herd a 74 percent win probability against Gardner-Webb's 26. That is a comfortable number for an FBS team hosting an FCS opponent, but not a runaway one, and the game is non-conference despite the Sun Belt Conference heading atop the page.

Gardner-Webb sits 66th in FCS out of 128 teams with a national rank of 314, and its offense, defense and power ratings all grade out as A- within that FCS pool. The Runnin' Bulldogs have not been beaten by more than 18 points all season, a sign that even as a national underdog here, they tend to keep games within reach.

Marshall carries a national rank of 75 and sits 69th in FBS, with far more modest letter grades, an offense graded D and a defense graded D. What stands out is direction rather than level, Marshall has improved its Versus power rating in each of the last four weeks and climbed to a season-best FBS ranking this week, entering as the Sun Belt's No. 2-ranked team even in a game that will not affect the conference table.