FCS · Southland ConferenceConference game
Lamar's ranking gap over Nicholls State runs deeper than the records
Final
Lamar49-18Nicholls St
Versus called the winner. The projected margin was off by 19 points.
Lamar#1976%
Nicholls St#5024%Wk 4 (Sep 20), 2026-27: Lamar 76%, Nicholls St 24% at Nicholls St.
Lamar's win probability against Nicholls St is trending up — from 57% to 76% over the last 6 updates.
Lamar's win probability against Nicholls St is trending up — from 63% to 80% over the last 6 updates.
Lamar's win probability against Nicholls St is trending up — from 69% to 84% over the last 6 updates.
A one-game difference in the standings, Lamar at 2-1 and Nicholls State at 2-2, undersells how far apart Versus has these two Southland Conference teams. Lamar sits at No. 19 in FCS, 31 spots ahead of Nicholls State's No. 50, and the ratings behind that gap explain why: Lamar is a defense-first team, grading out A- on that side of the ball at No. 18 in FCS even with a more modest B- offense ranked 53rd. Nicholls State's defense grades D+ and ranks 102nd.
That imbalance matters here because Nicholls State has been outscored on average over its last four games, going 2-2 in that stretch, a sign the offense has had to carry a defense that keeps giving points back. Lamar, by contrast, climbed 10 spots in the Versus FCS rankings in a single week last month, jumping from No. 28 to No. 18.
Versus projects Lamar to win 32-20, a 12-point margin, and gives the Cardinals a 76 percent chance to take this Southland Conference game. Lamar also leads the series 7-6 since 2011 and won the two teams' most recent meeting 24-17.
Graded within FCS, 128 teams
