D2 · South Atlantic ConferenceConference game
Carson-Newman edges Mars Hill in tight D2 projection
Carson-Newman#2456%
Mars Hill#2344%Wk 4 (Sep 20), 2026-27: Carson-Newman 56%, Mars Hill 44% at Carson-Newman.
Carson-Newman's win probability against Mars Hill is trending down — from 73% to 43% over the last 6 updates.
Carson-Newman's win probability against Mars Hill is trending down — from 78% to 50% over the last 6 updates.
Carson-Newman's win probability against Mars Hill is trending down — from 82% to 56% over the last 6 updates.
Versus projects a 24-22 outcome here, with Carson-Newman given a 56 percent chance to win and Mars Hill 44 percent, a two-point margin that puts this among the closest calls on the board this week. Both teams arrive unbeaten, and the numbers back up why neither side looks like a clear pick.
Carson-Newman carries the better overall grade at A- to Mars Hill's A, and its offense is graded B+, 47th in D2, giving it more balance than its visitor. The Eagles have also won 13 straight at home, a streak this game would extend if the projection holds, and their 4-0 start is the best record in the sport right now.
Mars Hill counters with defense. Its unit is graded A, 23rd in D2, and it has climbed 42 spots in the Versus D2 rankings this season, up from No. 65 to No. 23. The offense lags at only 69th, graded B-, which is the clearest gap in an otherwise even matchup.
This is a South Atlantic Conference game, so it counts in the standings for both sides, with Carson-Newman ranked 24th in D2 and Mars Hill 23rd heading in.
Graded within D2, 162 teams