Colorado Mines projected to hold off Chadron State by 8

Versus projects Colorado Mines to beat Chadron State 28-20, a margin that lines up with the gap between the two on paper even though both teams arrived at 1-2 and 1-3 respectively. The model gives the Orediggers a 67 percent win probability in this Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference matchup.

Colorado Mines carries a B+ overall grade with an A- defense and sits 27th in defensive rank among Division II teams, and the Orediggers just posted their most lopsided win since November 2025, a 34-3 result over Fort Lewis. That kind of form supports the projection even with the Orediggers still working through a shaky start to the season.

Chadron State's numbers tell a rougher story. The Eagles have been outscored on average over their last four games, going 1-3 in that stretch, and all three of those losses have come against teams with winning records. Their most recent defeat was also their first home loss of the season, snapping a perfect start at home. Chadron State does carry a strong strength of schedule rank of 4th in Division II, but a C+ offensive grade and 90th ranked offense make it difficult to see where the points come from against Colorado Mines' defense.

The series has been lopsided too, with Colorado Mines winning 9 of the last 10 meetings and leading 13-5 overall. Versus ranks the Orediggers 49th in Division II, 17 spots ahead of Chadron State at 66th, a gap the projection reflects almost exactly.