Drake projected to edge Davidson, extending its series dominance

Drake has controlled this Pioneer Football Conference series, leading 8-3 since 2007 and winning eight of the last ten meetings with Davidson. Versus still gives Drake a slight edge in the standings, ranking the Bulldogs 98th in FCS, 12 spots ahead of Davidson at 110th.

Both programs enter this conference matchup near the bottom of the FCS pool. Drake sits 0-3 with an offensive rank of 118 and a defensive rank of 122, both graded D-. Davidson is 2-2 despite an offensive rank of 124 and a defensive rank of 123, also graded D- across the board. Drake's overall grade of D+ is a shade better than Davidson's D, but neither team's power grade climbs out of D- territory.

Davidson has shown some spark despite the modest numbers, having beaten VMI for the first time in Versus records this season. That kind of result matters little to the model's projection, though, which still favors Drake by a single point, 29 to 28, giving the Bulldogs a 53 percent win probability against Davidson's 47. Drake's strength of schedule ranks 60th against Davidson's 116th, a gap that helps explain why Versus leans, barely, toward the visitors.