FCS · Missouri Valley Football ConferenceConference game
Youngstown State's power rank matches South Dakota's despite the record gap
Youngstown St#1854%
South Dakota#746%Wk 4 (Sep 20), 2026-27: Youngstown St 54%, South Dakota 46% at Youngstown St.
Youngstown St's win probability against South Dakota has swung between 42% and 50% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 42% now.
Youngstown St's win probability against South Dakota has swung between 48% and 56% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 48% now.
Youngstown St's win probability against South Dakota has swung between 54% and 62% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 54% now.
South Dakota arrives at 3-1 and Youngstown State at 2-2, a gap that suggests one team is clearly ahead of the other. Versus's power ratings say otherwise. The Coyotes sit 5th in FCS and the Penguins 6th, separated by almost nothing, and that closeness is what actually shapes this Missouri Valley Football Conference matchup.
South Dakota grades out A+ across the board, with a 3rd ranked offense and a 9th ranked defense, though its strength of schedule sits at 44th in FCS. Youngstown State counters with an A+ offense and A+ defense of its own, ranked 5th and 7th, and a tougher 33rd ranked schedule to this point. South Dakota has outscored its last four opponents while running its record to 3-1, and Youngstown State is one of only 17 FCS teams ranked in the top 25 in both offense and defense.
Versus projects a tight finish, Youngstown State 31, South Dakota 29, making the Penguins a 54 percent favorite at home. As a conference game, it carries standings weight for both sides even with the win totals reading differently than the ratings do.
Graded within FCS, 128 teams