Boise State projected to edge Western Michigan in a tight non-conference test

Versus gives Boise State the edge here, but not by much. The model has the Broncos from the Pac-12 winning 29-24 with a 63 percent chance to come away with it, a projection that leaves plenty of room for Western Michigan to make it a game.

The gap on paper is real even if the score isn't. Boise State sits 34th in FBS overall against Western Michigan's 51st, and the letter grades tell the same story, an A- overall mark with a B+ offense and B defense for Boise State against a B overall grade, a C+ offense and a B- defense for Western Michigan. Boise State's strength of schedule ranks 8th, well ahead of Western Michigan's 47th, which helps explain why the model trusts its record more.

Where Western Michigan pushes back is at home. The Broncos have won six straight there and have improved their power rating in each of the last four weeks, a trend that fits a team capable of tightening the margin further. This is a non-conference game for both sides, Boise State out of the Pac-12 and Western Michigan out of the Mid-American Conference, so nothing in either league's standings is on the line, just a measuring-stick result for two teams both sitting at 2-1.