Stony Brook projected to edge Fordham by a single point

Stony Brook has controlled this series with Fordham, winning four of seven meetings since 2018, and the two sides met as recently as last September, when the Seawolves rolled to a 41-18 win. This year's game is non-conference, with Stony Brook representing the Colonial Athletic Association and Fordham the Patriot League, so nothing in either conference's standings is on the line. Versus still separates the two by rank, slotting Stony Brook 57th in FCS and Fordham 90th.

Stony Brook's profile leans heavily on its offense, graded A- and ranked 28th in FCS, while its defense checks in at only a C+ and 69th. That imbalance has not hurt at home, where the Seawolves have won seven straight. Fordham arrives having snapped a 10-game losing streak with a win over a William & Mary team ranked 41 spots above it, but the Rams have otherwise been outscored on average over their last four games, going 1-3 in that stretch.

Versus projects a tight finish, Stony Brook 30, Fordham 29, giving the Seawolves a 53 percent chance to win against Fordham's 47. Given Stony Brook's offensive strength and its recent home form, a narrow margin fits the pattern, even if Fordham's stronger strength of schedule ranking, 15th to Stony Brook's 50th, suggests the Rams have been tested more often this fall.