Augustana SD leans on history and offense to edge Minn St-Moorhead

Augustana SD has won 7 of the last 10 meetings with Minn St-Moorhead and holds a 7-3 edge in the series since 2010, and Versus projects the trend to continue this week. The Vikings are rated 18th in Division II, 32 spots ahead of the Dragons at No. 50, and both sides carry that gap into a Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference matchup that counts in the standings.

Both teams are built the same way. Augustana SD grades out as A in offense at 22nd in Division II but only B- on defense at 67th, while Minn St-Moorhead is nearly a mirror image, A- offense at 31st paired with a B defense ranked 64th. Neither defense projects to slow the other down, which is reflected in Versus's expected score of 34-30 in Augustana SD's favor, a four-point margin with the Vikings given a 58 percent win probability.

Minn St-Moorhead arrives having had a 5-game winning streak snapped by a 28-29 loss, while Augustana SD is working on 8 straight winning seasons. With Augustana SD's sos ranked 54th against Minn St-Moorhead's 108th, the Vikings have faced the tougher schedule so far, another factor tilting Versus's model in their direction for Saturday.