Columbia projected to hold off Lafayette by five

Versus projects a 28-23 finish, with Columbia favored to beat Lafayette in a non-conference matchup that pits the Ivy League against the Patriot League. That five-point margin lines up with a wide gap in the season-long numbers: Columbia sits at No. 31 in FCS to Lafayette's No. 93, a 62-spot difference in the overall FCS ranks.

Columbia comes in unbeaten at 0-0 with the top strength of schedule mark in the sport, ranked 2nd, and its power rating has climbed in each of the last five weeks. The Lions carry a C+ overall grade and a B- defense, and they are fresh off a road win at Georgetown DC, their first there since September 2022.

Lafayette is 1-1 but has been outscored on average over its last four games, going 1-3 in that stretch, though its last three have all been decided by eight points or fewer, suggesting the Leopards can hang around even when the numbers lean against them. That history matters here too. Lafayette leads the all-time series 5-3, and the two sides split a wild one last September, Columbia winning 40-34. Versus's model expects a tighter finish again, but with Columbia's schedule strength and defensive rank of 62 nationally in FCS carrying the day.