Delta State edges Mississippi Valley State by a single projected point

Versus projects the tightest possible outcome here, Delta State 28, Mississippi Valley State 27, with the Statesmen given just a 54 percent edge to 46 for the Delta Devils. A one-point margin like that says the model sees almost nothing separating these two on paper despite the gap in level.

This is a cross-division matchup, Delta State coming from D2 and Mississippi Valley State from FCS, and it is also a non-conference game that carries no bearing on either team's conference standings. Delta State sits 0-3 and ranked 93rd in D2, with a C+ overall grade built on a middling C offense and C- defense, though its schedule strength ranks a solid 23rd in D2. Mississippi Valley State is 1-2, ranked 127th in FCS with a D- across the board in power, offense and defense, and a softer 115th-ranked schedule.

The national ranks tell the real story of how thin the margin is despite that gap, Delta State at 485th overall and Mississippi Valley State at 605th, a real but not enormous separation. With both offenses and defenses in the lower tier of their respective divisions, this projects as a game that could go either way, and Versus gives only the slightest lean to the visiting Statesmen.