Texas-Rio Grande Valley picked by a point over Houston Christian

Texas-Rio Grande Valley and Houston Christian have already crossed paths with a common opponent this season, each facing Northwestern St with very different results: the Vaqueros ran away by 45 points while the Huskies needed a 7-point win to get past the same team. The last time these two met directly, in October 2025, Texas-Rio Grande Valley beat Houston Christian 27-7.

Both programs sit at 5-6 heading into this Southland Conference game, which counts in the league standings. Versus has Texas-Rio Grande Valley 49th in FCS with a B overall grade, nine spots ahead of Houston Christian at 58th with a B-. The Vaqueros also carry the stronger strength of schedule mark at 31st, compared to 48th for the Huskies, and hold a defensive edge with a B grade against Houston Christian's B-.

Neither team is playing its best football right now. Texas-Rio Grande Valley has been outscored on average over its last five games, going 2-3 in that stretch after peaking at No. 19 nationally in Week 1. Houston Christian has cooled off since the season's midpoint as well, though it did pull off a win over a Southland opponent ranked well ahead of it in the standings.

The projection has Texas-Rio Grande Valley winning 24-23, a margin that matches how even these two grade out. Houston Christian's offense has performed noticeably better at home than on the road this season, which could be the difference if the Huskies are going to turn this narrow projection in their favor.