Tennessee and LSU project to a one-point margin in the SEC

Versus has this one as close as its model gets, picking Tennessee to win 26-25 with a 51 percent win probability against LSU's 49, a margin of a single point. The game counts in the SEC standings, and little about the two profiles explains such a tight call on paper.

LSU sits 20th in FBS overall but carries an A+ grade in power, offense and defense, with a 5th-ranked offense and a 7th-ranked defense built against the 7th-toughest schedule in the division. Tennessee is 7th in FBS at 8-2, graded A+ overall on the strength of a 5th-ranked defense, though its offense ranks 14th and its schedule only 36th, the softest number in either profile.

LSU has leaned on separation this season, winning 6 of its 10 games by 21 points or more and holding opponents at least 25 percent below their scoring average in 7 of those 10. Tennessee, meanwhile, has reached its best position in the Versus rankings since 2022.

LSU leads the series 4-1 in 5 meetings since 2007 and has taken four of the last five, but this projection has Tennessee breaking that run by the slimmest of margins.