FBS · Pac-12 ConferenceConference game
Texas St-San Marcos projected to outscore Washington St 36-23
Washington StAway23
Texas St-San MarcosHome36Texas St-San Marcos#3578%Washington St#11722%Wk 12 (Nov 15), 2026-27: Texas St-San Marcos 78%, Washington St 22% at Texas St-San Marcos.
Texas St-San Marcos' win probability against Washington St is trending down — from 75% to 67% over the last 6 weeks.
Texas St-San Marcos' win probability against Washington St has swung between 73% and 87% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 73% now.
Texas St-San Marcos' win probability against Washington St has swung between 78% and 90% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 78% now.
Versus projects Texas St-San Marcos to win 36-23, a 13-point margin that lines up with a 78 percent chance of victory for the Bobcats. That is a wide gap for a Pac-12 game that counts in the conference standings, and it reflects a split profile more than a mismatch at the margins.
The ranking split tells the story. Texas St-San Marcos sits No. 35 in FBS while Washington State is No. 117, an 82-spot gap. Both teams played Oregon State this season with very different results: Washington State lost by 18, Texas St-San Marcos won by 21.
Washington State carries a 2-8 record and an overall grade of D, but its scoring has picked up as the season has gone on, and the Cougars have shown they can be sharper at home than away, a trend worth noting with this one in San Marcos.
Texas St-San Marcos is built around its A- offense, ranked 26th in FBS, even with a C+ defense ranked 70th. The Bobcats are 6-4, have posted a winning record in four straight seasons, and have already won three of their ten games by 21 points or more.
Graded within FBS, 138 teams
