Norfolk State's home scoring edge outweighs its ranking gap with Howard

The widest gap between these two sits in the standings themselves: Versus ranks Howard No. 78 in FCS, 43 spots clear of Norfolk State at No. 121, yet the Spartans are favored to win this Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference game at home. Norfolk State scores considerably better in its home games than on the road this season, a split that helps explain a projected 29-24 final and a 62 percent win probability despite the Spartans carrying the conference's lower overall grade, a D- against Howard's C.

Howard has the mirror image working against it here. The Bison also score much better at home than away, which cuts the wrong direction on the road at Norfolk State. Howard's offense carries a C- grade and its defense a D+, with ranks of 97 and 100 respectively, close enough to Norfolk State's offensive rank of 83 and defensive rank of 99 that neither side clearly separates itself through the lines.

Norfolk State leads the series with Howard 9-7 in 16 meetings since 2007, though its power rating has slipped in each of the last five weeks, a trend working against the model's confidence even as the home scoring split keeps the Spartans favored. Howard's own notable result this season was an upset of Alabama A&M, a team ranked 27 spots ahead of the Bison, suggesting Howard is capable of outplaying its ranking when the matchup favors it.