Baylor's ratings close the gap on Texas Tech's 9-1 record

Texas Tech arrives at 9-1 with the look of a team that should handle a 6-4 Baylor squad, but the ratings tell a tighter story. Versus projects a 28-27 Baylor win with a win probability split of 51 to 49, and the strength of schedule numbers explain why: Texas Tech's slate ranks just 47th in FBS, while Baylor's ranks 16th despite the uneven record.

Texas Tech still carries real credentials, sitting 9th in FBS with an A+ overall grade, an A on both power and offense, and an A- defense. The 9-1 mark is the third-best record in the country this season, Texas Tech's best standing since 2008, and the program has now posted a winning record in six straight seasons.

Baylor ranks 32nd in FBS but grades out at A- across power, offense and defense, with a defensive rank of 22nd overall. The Bears have held an opponent at least 25 percent below its scoring average in seven of ten games this year, won three of those ten by 21 points or more, and have improved their power rating in each of the last three weeks.

Baylor leads the series 10-8 in 18 meetings since 2007, and this one counts in the Big 12 standings for both programs.