LSU favored at home over No. 4 Texas despite the ranking gap

Versus sends the lower-ranked team into this one as the favorite. Texas sits at No. 4 in the FBS power rankings with LSU all the way down at 14th, yet the projection has LSU winning 27-25 on its own field. The gap owes mostly to how LSU has been playing: the Tigers carry an A+ grade in power, offense and defense alike, have won 6 of their 9 games by 21 points or more, and have held an opponent at least 25 percent below their scoring average in 6 of those 9 outings.

Texas arrives with the steadier resume on paper. The Longhorns are 7-2, hold the No. 1 defensive rank and the No. 1 strength of schedule rank in the FBS, and carry A+ grades across the board themselves. Both teams have faced Mississippi already this season, with Texas winning by 7 and LSU losing by 8, a data point that cuts in Texas's favor even as the overall projection leans the other way.

This is a Southeastern Conference game and counts in the standings for both sides. With LSU at 6-3 and Texas at 7-2, either result moves one team's conference positioning more than the other's, and Versus sees this as close enough that the margin sits at just two points.