D2 · Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic ConferenceConference game
Grand Valley State's soft schedule shadows a top-10 offense vs Davenport
Grand Valley St#3056%
Davenport#1944%Wk 11 (Nov 8), 2026-27: Grand Valley St 56%, Davenport 44% at Davenport.
Grand Valley St's win probability against Davenport has swung between 41% and 68% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 56% now.
Grand Valley St's win probability against Davenport has swung between 48% and 74% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 62% now.
Grand Valley St's win probability against Davenport has swung between 54% and 78% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 68% now.
The widest gap on paper here is not power or offense, it's schedule strength: Grand Valley State carries a strength of schedule rank of 83 in D2 while Davenport sits at 48, even though the Lakers grade out higher in nearly every other category. Grand Valley State's A+ offense, ranked 9th in D2, has produced six wins by 21 points or more this season, a sign of how often it has pulled away from overmatched opponents.
Davenport counters with the better defensive profile of the two, an A+ unit ranked 10th in D2 that has held seven of ten opponents at least 25 percent below their scoring average. The Panthers have climbed from No. 56 to No. 19 in the D2 rankings this season and arrive at 8-2, one win better than Grand Valley State's 7-3 mark.
The series has been entirely one-sided since 2017, with Grand Valley State winning all eight meetings in that span. Versus projects another close one this time, giving Grand Valley State a 56 percent win probability and a 29-26 edge, with Davenport's defense and climbing form keeping the GLIAC matchup within three points on paper.
Graded within D2, 162 teams
