D2 · Conference CarolinasNon-conference
Concord's soft schedule clouds its edge over road-leaning Ferrum
Concord#8980%
Ferrum#13120%Wk 11 (Nov 8), 2026-27: Concord 80%, Ferrum 20% at Concord.
Concord's win probability against Ferrum has swung between 66% and 76% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 70% now.
Concord's win probability against Ferrum has swung between 71% and 80% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 76% now.
Concord's win probability against Ferrum has swung between 76% and 84% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 80% now.
Strength of schedule is the number that separates these two more than their records suggest. Concord sits at No. 152 in Division II strength of schedule among 162 teams, while Ferrum, despite a losing record, has played the tougher slate at No. 116. That gap matters because Concord's overall ranking of No. 89 is only 42 spots better than Ferrum's No. 131, a margin built partly against lighter competition.
Concord's offense, graded B- and ranked 72nd in Division II, has carried a 7-3 record, but the Mountain Lions have cooled noticeably since the season's midpoint. Their defense, graded D+ and ranked 131st, mirrors Ferrum's own D+ defense at 127th, and neither group figures to make this a low-scoring night.
Ferrum brings an offense graded D and ranked 145th, but the Panthers have actually played better on the road than at home this season. Close games have not broken their way, though, with a 1-3 mark in one-score contests. Versus projects a 36-21 Concord win in a non-conference matchup, giving the Mountain Lions an 80 percent chance to win outright.
Graded within D2, 162 teams
