Indiana's soft schedule meets a surging Southern Cal squad

The widest gap between these two teams has nothing to do with their records. Indiana carries a strength of schedule rank of 74 in FBS, while Southern Cal sits at 22, a wide split that complicates how much credit Indiana's 8-1 mark should get against a Southern Cal team that has already been tested.

Versus still likes Indiana here, projecting a 29-22 win and a 67 percent chance to beat the Trojans at home in a game that counts in the Big Ten standings. Indiana carries an A overall grade built on an A+ defense ranked 8th in FBS, while Southern Cal grades out at A- overall with an A- offense ranked 23rd. Both teams enter ranked in the Versus FBS poll, Indiana at 13 and Southern Cal at 22, and Indiana's power rank of 15 outpaces Southern Cal's 30.

Indiana's 8-1 start is the 3rd-best record in the country, and the Hoosiers have gone 4-1 in one-score games this season, evidence they can win the tight ones. Southern Cal arrives with its own momentum, having made a 15-spot jump in the Versus rankings in a single week this season, climbing from No. 35 to No. 20. That kind of rise suggests the Trojans are playing their best football at the right time, even as the schedule numbers favor Indiana's resume.