FCS · Big Sky ConferenceConference game
Montana's power edge outruns Idaho State's close-game resume
Montana#1763%
Idaho St#2537%Wk 11 (Nov 8), 2026-27: Montana 63%, Idaho St 37% at Montana.
Montana's win probability against Idaho St has swung between 44% and 60% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 51% now.
Montana's win probability against Idaho St has swung between 50% and 66% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 57% now.
Montana's win probability against Idaho St has swung between 56% and 71% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 63% now.
The records alone suggest a near-even game, Montana at 7-3 and Idaho State at 6-4, but the Versus grades tell a different story. Montana carries an A+ power grade and sits 9th in the Big Sky's FCS group in power rank, while Idaho State grades out at A- overall and sits 17th, a real gap even though both programs carry strong letter grades across the board.
Idaho State's case for staying competitive is its defense, graded A and ranked 16th, and the fact that no opponent has beaten the Bengals by more than 7 points all season. That durability matters against a Montana offense that grades A+ and ranks 7th, but Montana's own habit of blowing games open, winning 5 of its 10 games by 21 points or more, points toward a wider margin than Idaho State's close-game history would predict.
This one counts in the Big Sky standings, and the series history favors Montana heavily, up 13-0 in 13 meetings since 2007 and winners of the last 10 in a row. Versus projects Montana to win 33-27, a 6-point margin that splits the difference between Idaho State's resilience and Montana's higher power and offensive standing.
Graded within FCS, 128 teams
