FBS · Big 12 ConferenceConference game
Brigham Young projected to edge Baylor by a field goal at home
Brigham Young#1656%
Baylor#3944%Wk 11 (Nov 8), 2026-27: Brigham Young 56%, Baylor 44% at Brigham Young.
Brigham Young's win probability against Baylor has swung between 40% and 62% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 44% now.
Brigham Young's win probability against Baylor has swung between 46% and 68% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 50% now.
Brigham Young's win probability against Baylor has swung between 53% and 73% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 56% now.
Versus has Brigham Young winning 26-23, a three-point margin that gives Baylor a 44 percent chance to pull the road upset in this Big 12 matchup. That tight a projection fits two teams Versus rates almost identically, with Brigham Young's power grade of A- matching Baylor's own A- despite the 23-spot gap between their divisional ranks, 16th for the Cougars against 39th for the Bears.
Baylor arrives with an A- defense that has held seven of nine opponents at least 25 percent below their scoring average, and no one has beaten the Bears by more than 11 points all season, numbers that suggest this one stays close even on the road. Brigham Young counters with its own A- defense and an offense that, while ranked 31st in FBS, has been good enough to carry a 7-2 record into this stretch of the schedule.
The Cougars also bring a 12-game home winning streak into Saturday, a run that stretches back to November 2024 and gives their 56 percent win probability some extra weight. Brigham Young leads the series 2-1 in three meetings since 2021, and with the game counting in the Big 12 standings, either side can make a real move with a win.
Graded within FBS, 138 teams
