Chadron State's series edge favors road win at Black Hills State

Chadron State has owned this series, winning 9 of 13 meetings since 2012, and that history lines up with where Versus has this one going even though Black Hills State sits higher in the Division II ranks at No. 43 to Chadron State's No. 55. The gap closes once the deeper numbers come into play, with Chadron State graded B+ on power and B+ on defense against Black Hills State's C and C+ in those same categories.

Chadron State's defense has held an opponent at least 25 percent below its scoring average in six of nine games this season, and three of the Eagles' nine wins have come by 21 points or more, a sign their recent form carries some weight behind it.

Black Hills State has been harder to pin down, swinging from a 36-point win to a 32-point loss at different points this season, and the Yellow Jackets head into Saturday on a two-game losing streak, their first since November 2025. Their strength of schedule rank of 38 sits close to Chadron State's 32, so neither team has faced a notably softer slate.

Versus projects Chadron State to win 29-22, giving the Eagles a 67 percent chance against Black Hills State's 33, and the result counts in the Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference standings.