Lehigh projected to edge Colgate by two in tight Patriot League test

Versus projects a 23-21 final, with Lehigh favored by just two points and given a 55 percent win probability to Colgate's 45. That's about as even as a projection gets, and it reflects two Patriot League teams built in opposite directions.

Colgate carries an A defense ranked 18th in FCS but only a C+ offense ranked 69th, a profile that has produced a 5-4 record overall and a 1-3 mark in one-score games this season. Lehigh is the more balanced side, graded B+ on offense at 40th and B on defense at 44th, and sits at 7-2 after peaking at No. 4 in the FCS rankings back in Week 5.

Versus ranks Lehigh 29th in FCS, 13 spots ahead of Colgate at 42nd, though Lehigh's strength of schedule rank of 91 is far softer than Colgate's 53rd. Both teams faced Georgetown DC this season: Colgate lost by 10 and Lehigh won by 31, a gap that lines up with the model's lean toward the Mountain Hawks. Lehigh also leads the all-time series 10-8. The game counts in the Patriot League standings, and Versus sees it turning on which identity wins out, Colgate's defense or Lehigh's balance.