Idaho's 37-28 projection over Eastern Washington leans on late-season surge

Versus projects a 37-28 Idaho win, a nine-point margin that gives the Vandals a 71 percent chance in this Big Sky Conference matchup, and the shape of the score tells most of the story. Both offenses grade out strong, Idaho's an A and Eastern Washington's an A-, but the gap shows up on the other side of the ball, where Idaho's B+ defense sits at No. 34 in FCS against Eastern Washington's B- unit at No. 59.

Idaho arrives with momentum Versus can actually trace: the Vandals have climbed 12 spots in the FCS power rankings this season, from No. 31 to No. 19, and have improved their power rating in each of the last five weeks. Eastern Washington is trending the opposite way, with its power rating slipping in each of the last three weeks despite an offense that still ranks 22nd nationally in FCS.

The records, 4-5 for Idaho and 2-7 for Eastern Washington, undersell the Eagles somewhat. Eastern Washington carries the toughest schedule in FCS by Versus's strength of schedule rank, a No. 1 mark that includes a win over a Northern Iowa team ranked 39 spots above Eastern Washington itself. Idaho isn't far behind at No. 2 in schedule strength, so this game counts in the Big Sky standings between two teams that have already been tested.

With Idaho's offense graded a notch above Eastern Washington's and a defense that has proven more durable over the stretch run, Versus sees the Vandals' recent rise carrying through at home.