FBS · Atlantic Coast ConferenceNon-conference
Strength of schedule, not rank, separates Miami FL and Notre Dame
Notre Dame#1462%
Miami FL#338%Wk 10 (Nov 1), 2026-27: Notre Dame 62%, Miami FL 38% at Notre Dame.
Notre Dame's win probability against Miami FL is trending down — from 64% to 50% over the last 6 weeks.
Notre Dame's win probability against Miami FL is trending down — from 69% to 56% over the last 6 weeks.
Notre Dame's win probability against Miami FL is trending down — from 75% to 62% over the last 6 weeks.
The gap between these two shows up away from the win column. Miami FL carries a strength of schedule rank of 68 in FBS, while Notre Dame sits at 39, and that difference is doing more work here than the four spots between their divisional ranks of 3 and 14.
Miami FL arrives at 8-0, the best record in college football, riding an eight-game winning streak and an A+ overall grade built on the nation's third-ranked offense. Notre Dame counters with an A overall grade and a defense ranked 3rd in FBS, backed by an A+ grade on that side of the ball, part of a run of ten straight winning seasons for the program.
This is a non-conference game for both sides, meeting as the ACC and FBS Independents rather than inside either league's standings. Versus projects Notre Dame to win at home, 33-28, giving the Fighting Irish a 62 percent chance against Miami FL's 38. The series has gone Notre Dame's way 3-2 since 2010, though Miami FL took the most recent meeting in August 2025, 27-24.
Graded within FBS, 138 teams
