FCS Playoff Bracketology

Name: FCS Playoffs projected field and bracket, Week 7, 2026
Creator: Versus Sports Simulator
License: https://www.versussportssimulator.com/versusterms.html

Versus Sports Simulator projects the 24-team FCS football playoff field after Week 7 of the 2026 season. South Dakota St is the projected top seed. 11 of the 24 places go to automatic qualifiers and the rest are at-large. This one counts only games already played, so no remaining games are forecast. The selection committee picks the real field once the regular season ends. Updated October 11, 2026.

Top seed South Dakota St

Most likely champion South Dakota St 47.0%

Automatic bids 11 of 24

Week Picked by Committee Versus Field as of End of season Today See the FBS projection

In this view, Versus ranks the field on team strength alone, counting only the games already played. Winning a conference still earns a team a place in the bracket, but it never earns that team a better seed. The two choices above change only how Versus ranks the teams, and whether Versus simulates the rest of the season or counts only the games already played. Whichever pair you choose, each of the 11 conference champions receives an automatic bid, and the first round is paired to keep travel down.

The Field If the Playoffs Began Today

			Based on games played so farSo far
Seed#	Team	Bid type	RecordRecord	Versus rankRank	Strength of scheduleSoS	Strength of recordSoR
Seeds 1-8 · first-round bye
1	South Dakota St SDS	Missouri Valley champion	5-1	1	48	1
2	Stephen F. Austin SFA	Southland champion	6-0	2	60	3
3	Tarleton St TAR	UAC champion	6-0	3	79	2
4	Harvard HARV	Ivy League champion	4-0	4	44	9
5	Lehigh LEH	Patriot League champion	6-0	5	96	15
6	Youngstown St YSU	At-large	5-2	6	39	4
7	Northern Arizona NAU	At-large	5-2	7	14	5
8	Montana St MTST	Big Sky champion	5-1	8	35	8
Seeds 9-16 · host the first round
9	Campbell CAMP	CAA champion	5-1	9	76	7
10	Lamar LAM	At-large	5-1	10	46	10
11	South Dakota SDAK	At-large	5-2	11	18	6
12	Northern Iowa UNI	At-large	3-2	12	9	13
13	North Dakota UND	At-large	5-2	13	32	18
14	Montana MONT	At-large	5-2	14	43	19
15	Tennessee Tech TNTC	At-large	5-1	15	58	12
16	East Tennessee St ETSU	Southern champion	5-2	16	61	17
Seeds 17-24 · unseeded
17	Colgate COLG	At-large	4-2	17	20	29
18	Butler BUT	Pioneer champion	5-1	18	98	23
19	Abilene Christian ACU	At-large	3-4	19	2	25
20	Austin Peay PEAY	At-large	5-2	20	75	16
21	Mercer MER	At-large	5-2	21	67	21
22	Jackson St JKST	At-large	5-1	22	85	24
23	SE Missouri St SEMO	OVC champion	3-3	41	36	27
24	Central Conn St CCSU	Northeast champion	2-3	58	42	73

Projected Bracket

We favor the team shown advancing in every game, and the percentage beside it is its chance of winning that matchup.

Swipe the bracket sideways to see every round.

Projected by Versus Sports Simulator

FCS Playoffs

Projected bracket after Week 7 of the 2026 season. Seeds 1-8 have a first-round bye

First Round

Second Round

Quarterfinals

Semifinals

at East Tennessee St

at Campbell

at Northern Iowa

at North Dakota

at Tennessee Tech

at Lamar

at South Dakota

at Montana

at South Dakota St

at Montana St

at Lehigh

at Harvard

at Stephen F. Austin

at Northern Arizona

at Youngstown St

at Tarleton St

at South Dakota St

at Lehigh

at Stephen F. Austin

at Tarleton St

at South Dakota St

at Stephen F. Austin

FCS Championship

Versus Sports SimulatorOur projection as of October 11, 2026

First-round travel 5,006 miles

Trips under 400 miles 5 of 8

Saved against seed order 746 miles

Championship Odds

Versus simulated this bracket 20,000 times. The figures below show how often each team reached each round across those runs. The percentage beside a team in the bracket above is for one game against one opponent. The figures below cover every way the rest of the bracket could fall, upsets included. Click any team in the bracket to advance it and these figures change with it.

Team	Reach Second RoundR2	Reach QuarterfinalsQF	Reach SemifinalsSF	Reach FCS ChampionshipFinal	Win titleTitle
1 South Dakota St	100%	91.3%	74.3%	68.0%	47.0%
2 Stephen F. Austin	100%	77.3%	65.3%	37.8%	16.2%
6 Youngstown St	100%	65.8%	50.0%	31.5%	16.0%
8 Montana St	100%	78.9%	20.4%	14.8%	6.4%
11 South Dakota	94.2%	34.0%	23.7%	12.8%	5.4%
3 Tarleton St	100%	59.6%	18.5%	6.9%	1.8%
13 North Dakota	72.2%	40.3%	21.1%	3.5%	1.1%
5 Lehigh	100%	55.3%	27.1%	4.3%	1.1%
20 Austin Peay	64.2%	18.0%	11.6%	3.8%	1.1%
12 Northern Iowa	69.7%	34.1%	18.4%	2.9%	0.8%
4 Harvard	100%	49.2%	26.2%	3.6%	0.8%
14 Montana	66.5%	29.2%	6.2%	2.3%	0.6%
7 Northern Arizona	100%	61.7%	14.0%	3.1%	0.6%
16 East Tennessee St	64.1%	6.1%	2.2%	1.1%	0.4%
21 Mercer	57.9%	14.7%	1.9%	0.8%	0.3%
22 Jackson St	50.6%	20.8%	3.9%	0.6%	0.1%
19 Abilene Christian	33.5%	11.2%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
10 Lamar	49.4%	17.6%	3.1%	0.5%	<0.1%
9 Campbell	42.1%	6.4%	0.6%	0.2%	<0.1%
18 Butler	35.9%	2.5%	0.6%	0.2%	<0.1%
23 SE Missouri St	30.3%	10.6%	3.5%	0.3%	<0.1%
15 Tennessee Tech	35.8%	4.7%	2.1%	0.4%	<0.1%
17 Colgate	27.8%	10.5%	3.7%	0.3%	<0.1%
24 Central Conn St	5.8%	0.3%	<0.1%	0%	0%

First Teams Out

Team	ConferenceConf	RecordRecord
UC-Davis	Big Sky	4-2
Illinois St	Missouri Valley	4-2
Princeton	Ivy League	3-1
West Florida	UAC	3-2
Monmouth NJ	CAA	4-2

How This Projection Is Built

Every unplayed game on the schedule is run through the same prediction model that powers the Versus game simulator, using the ratings as they stood after Week 7. Those simulations give every team in contention a projected record and a projected rating, and they project the final conference standings.

How the Field Is Chosen

The field follows the NCAA's rules for the FCS playoffs. Eleven conference champions receive automatic bids, decided by regular-season conference record rather than a championship game, and thirteen more places go to at-large selections. The top sixteen teams are seeded and the top eight receive a first-round bye. The MEAC and SWAC send their champions to the Celebration Bowl instead of the playoffs, so Versus leaves both champions out of the field. It leaves out the SWAC runner-up too, because the SWAC title game is played after the playoff bracket has already started. Any other team in those two leagues can still take an at-large place.

How the Seeds Work

Only the top sixteen teams are seeded. The top eight of those sit out the first round, and seeds nine through sixteen each host a game. The other eight teams in the field carry no seed at all. We number them 17 to 24 in the table above. The NCAA does not.

Nothing in the format says which of those eight travels to which host, so the committee decides, and so does Versus.

How the First Round Is Paired

The eight hosts keep the bracket position their seeding earned. The eight unranked teams are then assigned across those eight games under two rules: no team opens against a school from its own conference, and the field as a whole travels as few miles as the geography allows. Where the geography allows, that keeps a team within 400 miles of home. Campus locations come from the U.S. Department of Education's college directory.

Five of the eight first-round trips in this projection are under 400 miles. The longest sends Abilene Christian to Montana, 1,247 miles. No other pairing of these eight teams covers fewer miles without putting two conference opponents in the same game.

First-round game	Played atAt	Miles
21 Mercer at 9 Campbell	Buies Creek, NC	333
22 Jackson St at 10 Lamar	Beaumont, TX	276
24 Central Conn St at 11 South Dakota	Vermillion, SD	1,234over 400
23 SE Missouri St at 12 Northern Iowa	Cedar Falls, IA	392
17 Colgate at 13 North Dakota	Grand Forks, ND	1,099over 400
19 Abilene Christian at 14 Montana	Missoula, MT	1,247over 400
20 Austin Peay at 15 Tennessee Tech	Cookeville, TN	106
18 Butler at 16 East Tennessee St	Johnson City, TN	320
Total		5,006

How the Projected Rank Is Read

Every team carries two ranks on this page. One is where it stood in the Week 7 FCS rankings. The other is the projected final rank, which is where Versus expects that team to finish once the season is over. The projected final rank is the one that sets the seeding. It is also what separates two teams that finish with the same record.

Strength of Schedule Versus Strength of Record

Strength of schedule measures how hard a team's opponents are. Strength of record measures how unlikely it would be for the 25th best team in the FCS to come out of that same schedule with that same record.

Lehigh is the clearest example this week. Its strength of schedule ranks 96th in the FCS, among the easier ones. Going 6-0 against it is still the 15th hardest record to achieve in the division, because a strong team dropped into that schedule would very likely have lost more often. A team can face an easy schedule and still produce a record that was hard to produce, which is why the two columns are ranked separately.

How the Order Is Decided

The order of selection blends two things: how good the model thinks a team is, and how good that team's resume is. Blending them is our best approximation of how a committee weighs the two against each other. Beating a top-25 team in the division earns a little extra credit in the order, and the amount slides with how good that opponent was. A win over the top-ranked team in the FCS is worth half a place. A win over the 25th is worth almost nothing. A team with several of those wins might climb a place or two, which is enough to settle an argument between two similar resumes and not enough to lift a team over one with a better record.

Teams That Played Fewer Games

Not every team plays the same number of regular-season games. A team that plays fewer of them gives us less evidence to judge it on, so Versus moves it down the selection order slightly. The strength of record column already carries part of that, because fewer games means fewer chances to build a record a strong team would struggle to match.

Where the Numbers Come From

Most bracketology is one person's opinion written up each week. This projection is computed. The same rating model that produces the FCS football rankings simulates every remaining game, applies the 2026 selection rules to the result, and seeds the field from it. No team is placed by hand, so this bracket changes only when results on the field change the ratings underneath it.

FCS Playoff Bracketology

The Field If the Playoffs Began Today

Projected Bracket

Championship Odds

First Teams Out

How This Projection Is Built

How the Field Is Chosen

How the Seeds Work

How the First Round Is Paired

How the Projected Rank Is Read

Strength of Schedule Versus Strength of Record

How the Order Is Decided

Teams That Played Fewer Games

Where the Numbers Come From

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