Missouri State's defense sets up to smother Abilene Christian's offense

The clearest edge in this non-conference matchup is the gap between Abilene Christian's No. 255 scoring offense and Missouri State's No. 152 scoring defense, a spread that has Versus projecting the Bears to win by 10 points, 80-70, and gives them a 74 percent chance to take it.

Missouri State has opened 3-0 and carries a three-game winning streak into the game, climbing 40 places since the preseason ratings to sit at No. 169 in Division I with a B- overall grade. Abilene Christian has gone the other way, dropping 25 spots to No. 264 after a 1-2 start that includes a loss to SF Austin its last time out, and its C- grades across the board reflect a team still finding its footing on both ends.

Versus has Missouri State ranked 95 spots ahead of Abilene Christian in the country, the largest single number separating these two sides. The last time they met, in November 2023 at a neutral site, Missouri State won 87-69, and nothing in the current data suggests this version of Abilene Christian is built to flip that result.