Texas's ratings edge cuts through two unbeaten records

Both teams arrive at 3-0, and both have made it look easy: Baylor has won all three of its games by 20 points or more, and Texas has done the same in each of its three. The records alone suggest a coin flip, but the schedules behind them do not hold up to scrutiny, with Baylor ranked 306th in strength of schedule and Texas right behind at 336th. Versus's ratings, built on more than the won-loss column, see real separation.

Texas carries an A+ grade in power, offense and defense, trailing only a small group of teams nationally graded in the top tier of both ends of the floor. Baylor is no afterthought, graded A in power, offense and defense of its own and up 10 spots since the preseason, but it sits 58th in the division compared with Texas's 38th. That gap shows up in the projection, with Texas favored 83-75 and given a 71 percent chance to win this non-conference meeting in San Antonio, Texas.

The series leans the other way on paper. Baylor leads the series with Texas 23-14 in 37 meetings since 2007 and has won 8 of the last 10 meetings between the two. History offers Baylor some comfort, but neither team has played anyone ranked highly enough yet to tell the ratings model much, and Versus is leaning on what it has seen rather than what the standings show.