Behind the Scenes: How the 2026 NFL Preseason Rankings Were Built
Every team is 0-0 right now and the ratings still have to say something about them. I've never actually written down how that happens, so here it is. Which teams we changed this offseason, how far we moved them, and why twenty of them didn't move at all.
Quick note on the name first. We call these preseason rankings, and people reasonably assume that means we're watching preseason games. We're not. Exhibition results don't go into this at all. Week 0 just means the numbers we've got before anybody has played a game that counts.
Where Week 0 Starts
Not from scratch. We start with wherever all 32 teams ended up last season, and we carry two numbers per team instead of one: an offense rating and a defense rating.
Keeping those apart is the whole reason any of this works. A team can lose its entire secondary in March and bring back every skill player on offense. With one number you have no way to say that.
Reading the Offseason
Then comes the part that isn't math. Somebody has to sit down and read about all 32 teams. Who left in free agency, who got signed, the trades, the draft, coaching changes, injuries, and above all of it, the quarterback situation.
Most of the time you finish reading and decide nothing really happened. That sounds lazy but it isn't. Every roster in this league turns over every year. Turnover by itself doesn't tell you anything. What we're after is lopsided: a team that lost way more than it brought back, or one that went out and bought a specific fix for a specific problem.
Why We Move Things in Standard Deviations
When a team does need to move, we move it by a fraction of a standard deviation instead of by points.
The reason is pretty simple. "Jacksonville's defense got worse" is an opinion. "Jacksonville's defense moves down 1.25 standard deviations" is an actual quantity. It's one and a quarter times the spread of the whole league on that side of the ball. It also means every adjustment I make is the same sort of thing, so next September I can open this file, see exactly what I did, and judge whether it was any good.
Offense and defense move independently of each other. This year's twelve adjustments ran from -1.25 up to +1.20.
Five Teams We Knocked Down
Jacksonville. Offense -0.50, defense -1.25. Biggest single move we made all offseason. The Jaguars lost linebacker Devin Lloyd, cornerback Greg Newsome II, safety Andrew Wingard and running back Travis Etienne. They finished 30th in the league in free agent spending and replaced almost none of it. Nearly all of the damage sits on defense, which is why the two numbers are so far apart. They finished sixth in our ratings last year. They open 13th.
Indianapolis. Offense -1.00, defense untouched. The Colts traded their number one receiver, Michael Pittman Jr., to Pittsburgh. They lost right tackle Braden Smith. And Daniel Jones is coming back from an Achilles tear he suffered in December. Their offense rating was third best in the league heading into all that. No defending it. The defense still has Sauce Gardner and Laiatu Latu, so we left that side where it was.
Miami. Offense -0.85, defense -0.20. Miami traded Tua Tagovailoa to Atlanta and goes into week 1 with Malik Willis at the top of the depth chart and nobody established behind him. Quarterback is the one spot where not knowing costs you something, and right now Miami has more of that than anybody.
Atlanta. Offense -0.45. This is the other end of the Miami trade. Atlanta had a settled starter in Michael Penix Jr., then brought in Tagovailoa, and now there's a competition. Two starting caliber quarterbacks only beats one if you know which one is playing.
Arizona. Offense -0.60. New head coach in Mike LaFleur, Jacoby Brissett holding the job, and rookie Carson Beck taken in the third round. A new staff plus a placeholder at quarterback usually adds up to a slow start.
Five Teams We Moved Up
Cincinnati. Defense +1.20, offense +0.10. Second biggest move we made, and probably the most obvious rebuild in the league. The Bengals were 30th in points allowed and dead last against the run. So they traded the tenth overall pick for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and brought in Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook. Burrow is healthy. They knew exactly what was wrong and they paid real money to fix it.
Dallas. Defense +1.05. Worst defensive rating in football, 30.1 points allowed a game. They fired defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, traded for edge rusher Rashan Gary, signed three veteran defenders, and spent five of their seven draft picks on that side of the ball. That's one of the biggest bumps we handed out all offseason, and Dallas still opens 31st on defense. Gives you some idea of the hole.
Las Vegas. Offense +0.95, defense +0.10. Their offense rating was 7.13, second worst in the league. Kirk Cousins doesn't make the Raiders good, but he does raise the floor, and Brock Bowers is turning into something. They were dead last in our ratings a year ago. They're 27th now.
Baltimore. Offense +0.30, defense +0.60. The Ravens gave edge rusher Trey Hendrickson four years and $112 million, and added Derrick Henry. The offense bump is smaller on purpose. They also lost center Tyler Linderbaum and tight end Isaiah Likely, so that side went both directions at once.
Philadelphia. Offense +0.60. Their offense was sitting 23rd, which is too low for a Jalen Hurts team that just added DJ Moore. The defense was already second in the league, so we left it alone. They open sixth with the best defensive rating of anybody in our top ten.
Two Teams We Moved for No Roster Reason at All
These are the two people don't expect, and honestly they're the ones I'd argue about first.
Houston. Offense -0.30, defense -0.70. Nothing happened to the Texans this offseason. Their defense rating of -1.11 was just the second most extreme number in the entire league, and numbers that extreme are almost never all real. Part of a great season is skill and part of it is luck, and the luck doesn't come back the next year. Defenses that good tend to drift toward the pack. So Houston comes down.
Minnesota. Defense -0.55. Same idea. A -3.61 defense rating ranked third in the league and it's due to give some of that back. The quarterback change, Kyler Murray in for the injured J.J. McCarthy, is close to a wash for an offense already sitting 25th, so we didn't touch that side.
The Twenty We Left Alone
Twenty of the 32 got nothing at all. Two of those took real work to land on.
Green Bay looked like a candidate on paper. But the Packers lost Rashan Gary, Quay Walker, Elgton Jenkins and Romeo Doubs, and Micah Parsons is working his way back from an ACL. Everything pointing up had something pointing down sitting right next to it. So we let it sit.
Washington was the same kind of thing. Losing left tackle Laremy Tunsil to a torn triceps is a real problem. Jayden Daniels entering his third season is a real positive. Those wash out, and inventing a number to separate them would just be pretending we know something we don't.
The rule we go by is that if we can't say what changed and point right at it, the number stays.
Why Teams Still Move When We Don't Touch Them
Kansas City is the cleanest example. We made zero adjustments to the Chiefs and they still climbed eleven spots.
That happens because Week 0 doesn't only carry over where a team finished. It carries how the team actually played, and those two things aren't always the same. Kansas City finished 25th in our 2025 ratings while its power rating sat 12th. The record made them look worse than they were. When the new season reconciles those two, they move on their own.
It runs the other way too. Pittsburgh finished 11th, rated 19th in power, and opens 18th.
The 2026 NFL Week 0 Rankings
Here's all 32, exactly as published on September 3, 2026. Offense and defense ranks are out of 32. The orange tags mark the twelve teams we adjusted. This list is frozen and won't ever be updated. The live NFL rankings change every night once games start.
Seattle Seahawks
NFC West · QB Sam Darnold
First last year, first again. Best defense rating in football with the second best offense sitting behind it. Nothing in the offseason gave us a reason to move them either direction.
Los Angeles Rams
NFC West · QB Matthew Stafford
Best offense rating in the league and we carried it straight over. Stafford is back for a sixth season in Los Angeles. The defense at seventh is the only thing separating them from Seattle.
Buffalo Bills
AFC East · QB Josh Allen
They finished eighth in our final 2025 ratings but rated fourth in power, so they played better than the finish suggests. Allen and the third best offense in football are hauling a 17th ranked defense up the board.
New England Patriots
AFC East · QB Drake Maye
Second last season and we didn't touch them. Maye starts his third year with the fourth best defense rating in the league behind him. The two spot slide is other teams climbing, not New England slipping.
Denver Broncos
AFC West · QB Bo Nix
Fifth on defense, 16th on offense, Bo Nix in year three. Same team they've been. Denver wins by making games ugly.
Philadelphia Eagles
NFC East · QB Jalen Hurts
Biggest riser in our top ten. A 23rd ranked offense was too low for a Hurts team that added DJ Moore, and the defense was already second in the league. Best defense rating of anybody up here.
San Francisco 49ers
NFC West · QB Brock Purdy
Eighth on offense, 11th on defense, Purdy back under center. About as steady a profile as there is in the league. There was nothing here to adjust.
Houston Texans
AFC South · QB C.J. Stroud
Marked down for nothing they did. That -1.11 defense rating was the second most extreme in the league and those always give some back. Even after the cut they're still third on defense.
Baltimore Ravens
AFC North · QB Lamar Jackson
Up ten spots. Hendrickson at four years and $112 million plus Derrick Henry in the backfield, minus center Tyler Linderbaum and tight end Isaiah Likely. A 19th place finish never matched a fifth ranked power rating anyway.
Detroit Lions
NFC North · QB Jared Goff
Widest split in the top ten. Fourth on offense, 24th on defense. No adjustment needed here. They finished 18th but rated tenth in power, and Week 0 splits the difference.
Chicago Bears
NFC North · QB Caleb Williams
Williams in year three with a top ten offense and a defense sitting 22nd. Our ratings liked Chicago more than most people did last season, and they still do.
Los Angeles Chargers
AFC West · QB Justin Herbert
An eighth ranked defense carrying a 20th ranked offense. Herbert is the constant here. What's around him is why they sit 12th instead of a lot higher.
Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC South · QB Trevor Lawrence
Our biggest adjustment of the offseason and the biggest talent loss in the league. Lloyd, Newsome, Wingard and Etienne all gone, 30th in free agent spending, almost nothing replaced. Sixth last year. 13th now.
Kansas City Chiefs
AFC West · QB Patrick Mahomes
Up eleven spots without a single adjustment. That 25th place finish badly misrepresented a team whose power rating was 12th. The sixth best defense is real. The 22nd ranked offense is the thing to watch.
Green Bay Packers
NFC North · QB Jordan Love
We looked hard at Green Bay and left them alone. Gary, Walker, Jenkins and Doubs are gone and Parsons is coming off an ACL. Everything arguing them up had something arguing them down.
Cincinnati Bengals
AFC North · QB Joe Burrow
Second biggest adjustment we made and the most deliberate rebuild in the league. 30th in points allowed, last against the run, then they traded the tenth pick for Dexter Lawrence and added Allen, Mafe and Cook. Burrow is healthy. Even after all that they're only 23rd on defense, which tells you how far there was to climb.
Indianapolis Colts
AFC South · QB Daniel Jones
A full standard deviation off the offense and nothing off the defense. Pittman traded to Pittsburgh, right tackle Braden Smith gone, Jones back from a December Achilles tear. Gardner and Latu keep the defense right where it was.
Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC North · QB Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers is back for a second season in Pittsburgh with Pittman added at receiver. Our ratings are less impressed than the record was. They finished 11th but rated 19th in power.
Minnesota Vikings
NFC North · QB Kyler Murray
Murray takes over for the injured McCarthy, which is close to a wash for an offense already sitting 25th. So the adjustment went on defense instead. That -3.61 rating was third in the league and it's due to come back some.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC South · QB Baker Mayfield
Untouched. Mayfield is back for a fourth season and the profile is the same middle of the league team it was in December. 15th offense, 21st defense.
Dallas Cowboys
NFC East · QB Dak Prescott
Most lopsided team in the league. Fifth best offense, 31st best defense. They allowed 30.1 a game, fired Matt Eberflus, traded for Rashan Gary and put five of seven draft picks on defense. After one of our biggest upward moves they're still 31st. That's where they started from.
Carolina Panthers
NFC South · QB Bryce Young
Untouched, and a strange shape for a team this low. A 12th ranked defense with a 28th ranked offense. Young is in year four and scoring is still the whole problem.
Atlanta Falcons
NFC South · QB Michael Penix Jr.
Adding Tua turned a settled job into a competition with Penix. Two starting caliber quarterbacks only beat one when you know which one is playing, and Atlanta doesn't know yet.
New Orleans Saints
NFC South · QB Tyler Shough
Untouched. Shough gets the job full time. A middle of the pack defense is being asked to cover the 29th ranked offense in football.
Washington Commanders
NFC East · QB Jayden Daniels
The other team we thought hard about and passed on. Losing Tunsil to a torn triceps is real. Daniels in his third season is real. They cancel, and making up a number to separate them would be false precision.
New York Giants
NFC East · QB Jaxson Dart
Up four spots with no adjustment at all. The Giants finished 30th but rated 23rd in power, so Dart's rookie year was better than the record made it look. The offense already rates 17th.
Las Vegas Raiders
AFC West · QB Kirk Cousins
Dead last in our 2025 ratings. That 7.13 offense rating was second worst in football. Cousins raises the floor even if he doesn't raise the ceiling. Bowers is the reason to watch.
Cleveland Browns
AFC North · QB Deshaun Watson
Untouched. The 14th ranked defense is perfectly fine. The 32nd ranked offense, dead last in the league, is the entire reason they're down here.
Tennessee Titans
AFC South · QB Cam Ward
Untouched and unmoved. Ward starts his second season after starting all 17 games as a rookie, but the Titans rate bottom ten on both sides of the ball.
Miami Dolphins
AFC East · QB Malik Willis
Biggest fall of anybody here, nine spots. Tua went to Atlanta and Miami opens week 1 with Malik Willis on top of the depth chart and nobody established behind him.
Arizona Cardinals
NFC West · QB Jacoby Brissett
New head coach in Mike LaFleur, Brissett holding the job, rookie Carson Beck taken in the third round. A new staff plus a placeholder at quarterback usually adds up to a slow start.
New York Jets
AFC East · QB Geno Smith
Untouched, and last. 30th on offense, 32nd on defense, the only team in the bottom three on both sides. Geno Smith arrives and Cade Klubnik was a third round pick.
What Week 0 Is Actually For
These numbers have a shorter shelf life than anything else we publish. They're a starting point, and real games chew through them fast. By the middle of October the ratings are running almost entirely on what teams have done on the field, and all the offseason judgment above barely registers anymore.
That's on purpose. Week 0 isn't supposed to be right about the season. It's supposed to give the model somewhere reasonable to stand before it has any evidence, so the week 1 predictions aren't garbage.
So take the list above as a set of positions we're willing to be held to. Not a forecast. The NFL rankings update every night once the season starts, and the fair way to grade this work is to look at both in December.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Versus preseason NFL rankings?
They're the NFL team ratings as they stand before any regular season game has been played. Week 0 rankings, in other words. They start from where all 32 teams finished the previous season, then adjust individual teams' offense and defense ratings for what changed over the offseason: free agent losses and additions, trades, the draft, coaching changes, injuries, and the quarterback situation.
Do these rankings have anything to do with NFL preseason games?
No. Preseason exhibition results aren't used at all. "Preseason" here just means before the regular season starts. The ratings are built from completed regular season and playoff results plus offseason research.
How many teams were adjusted for 2026?
Twelve of the 32. Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Miami, Atlanta and Arizona were adjusted down. Cincinnati, Dallas, Las Vegas, Baltimore and Philadelphia were adjusted up. Houston and Minnesota were adjusted down for statistical reasons rather than anything that happened to their rosters. The other twenty carried over unchanged.
What does an adjustment of "-1.25 standard deviations" mean?
It means the team's rating on that side of the ball moved down by one and a quarter times the spread of the whole league on that measure. Using standard deviations instead of points keeps every adjustment the same size relative to the league, which makes them comparable to each other and reviewable a year later.
How long do the preseason rankings last?
They start getting replaced with the first week of results and update every night during the season. By mid season the offseason adjustments carry almost no weight and the ratings run on games actually played.
Are the NFL rankings free?
Yes. Team rankings and team summaries are free for every sport Versus covers, no account required. Game predictions and the Game Simulator require a Versus Premium subscription.
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Steve Pugh, Founder and CEO, Compughter Technologies, LLC
Steve Pugh, the founder of Versus Sports Simulator, is passionate about the world of sports analytics and statistical modeling. With a deep-rooted love for math and sports, and a commitment to innovation, he's dedicated to equipping sports enthusiasts with useful tools and insights to help them make informed betting decisions.