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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 22 (Oct 7), 2026: Las Vegas 68%, Washington 32% at Las Vegas.
Las Vegas' win probability against Washington has swung between 54% and 59% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 58% now.
Las Vegas' win probability against Washington has swung between 59% and 64% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 63% now.
Las Vegas' win probability against Washington has held at 68% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.