Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 28), 2026-27: UC Davis 77%, New Mexico St 23% at a neutral site.
UC Davis' win probability against New Mexico St has held at 72% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
UC Davis' win probability against New Mexico St has held at 77% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
UC Davis' win probability against New Mexico St has held at 82% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.